Bitwise has raised its long-term Bitcoin price forecast to $1.6 million by 2036, according to an updated capital-market assumptions report released on October 28. The asset manager’s model projects a 34.3% compound annual growth rate over the coming decade, but the estimate is a forecast rather than a guaranteed outcome.
The 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions also estimate average annual volatility of 27.8% and a correlation of 0.43 with U.S. equities. Bitwise suggests institutional investors could allocate 1% to 5% of portfolios to Bitcoin, depending on their objectives and risk tolerances.
Why Bitwise increased its price target
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said the revised $1.6 million target replaces last year’s $1.3 million forecast for 2035. His accompanying analysis explains that the manager updated its estimate of the total markets Bitcoin could serve and the portion it might capture.
The research models growth in potential store-of-value demand and institutional capital allocations. Hougan estimated that the addressable store-of-value market could expand from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, while an institutional investment opportunity could rise from $216 trillion to $303 trillion over the relevant decade.
These are model inputs, not existing pools of investment already committed to Bitcoin. The resulting target depends on assumptions about adoption, competition and future economic conditions.
Risks remain despite the bullish projection
Bitwise identifies quantum computing, mathematical advances driven by artificial intelligence and regulatory reversal among material risks to its outlook. The firm also acknowledges Bitcoin’s historical drawdowns and continued volatility.
A 34.3% modeled annual return should not be treated as an estimate for any individual year. Bitcoin could experience severe losses or periods of stagnation even if a positive long-term scenario eventually develops, and the model could be wrong altogether.
What investors should watch
The forecast arrives during renewed discussion of the role of Bitcoin in institutional portfolios. Its relevance depends on whether adoption and actual capital flows begin to match the model’s assumptions, not merely whether analysts publish higher targets.
For near-term context, BlockBriefing has covered Bitcoin trading around the Federal Reserve’s October meeting. Such shorter-term macro movements are distinct from Bitwise’s ten-year valuation model.
Bitwise’s report also provides forecasts for correlation and volatility to help portfolio managers model risks. These figures may change when the firm updates its assumptions, and none should be interpreted as a live trading signal.
Primary sources: Bitwise’s October 28, 2026 research summary and CIO Matt Hougan’s accompanying memorandum. All price targets are projections, not facts about future prices.
